4680The battery strikes，Unbelievable Tesla

Under the wave of electrification，Any disturbance in the lithium battery industry has been infinitely amplified。Recent，As the time for the 4680 battery to become available is approaching，4680Related sectors of the battery began to restless。
Last September，We are the first time after the release of Tesla’s "Battery Day"，Just published an article to interpret the technical content of the 4680 battery。So what impact will the final mass production of 4680 batteries have on the power battery landscape?，This article attempts to make an interpretation based on the existing information，For your reference。
Don't myth Tesla
As the standard bearer of new energy vehicles，Tesla is the king of topics，Anything that involves Tesla，Many followers first came to Tesla's side。From the localization of Model 3 to Model Y price reduction，It seems that the market has qualitatively determined the ending in advance。This is not，Recently, the news that Tesla is about to mass produce 4680 batteries has once again become a hot topic。
It is undeniable that Tesla is the leader of new energy vehicles，Regardless of the sales or its in the Sanden system、Smart cockpit、The technical capabilities of autonomous driving are industry-leading。
but，most of the time，We are too mythical Tesla。
When Tesla was going to enter China，Many people who don't know the truth yelled the sharks，Worry about the living space of local brands and new car manufacturers。Now it seems，Domestic car companies and new car manufacturers have not only survived，Still alive，The monthly sales of "Wei Xiaoli" has already exceeded 10,000，Become the backbone of domestic smart electric brands。
Excluding the subjective level，Musk is radical and even sometimes unreliable style should let the market calm down first，Don't rush to set the tone for the success or failure of the 4680 battery。Technical route for power battery，The cylindrical battery dominated by Tesla has not become mainstream，in addition，The high-nickel ternary battery that Musk had strongly admired earlier did not form an overwhelming advantage.，On the contrary, lithium iron phosphate is highly sought after，Even Tesla itself launched the Model 3 lithium iron phosphate version。
There are also some examples that can be used as evidence。Musk has repeatedly talked about the value of Bitcoin in public，January of this year，Tesla bought $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin，It's March，Musk said on Twitter，Tesla now accepts Bitcoin payments。Because of the heat of Tesla and Musk，Bitcoin, already on the cusp of the storm, once again ushered in a price surge。
The end result was unexpected，Only two months have passed，It's May 12，Musk "turned his face" and said that because Bitcoin consumes too much power，Not in line with the concept of sustainable development，Tesla will no longer accept Bitcoin payments，Invite Bitcoin's crash。
You know that Tesla has already sold $272 million worth of Bitcoin in the first quarter，And made about 101 million U.S. dollars in profit from it。This wave of Musk's operation is somewhat inconsistent with his "Iron Man" persona.。Let’s look at Tesla’s quarterly report this year，Its profit in the first quarter was $438 million，An increase of 16 million U.S. dollars from last year，In fact, Tesla's sale of Bitcoin and electric car credits accounted for a large part of the income。
And Musk has vowed to guarantee the L5 level of autonomous driving technology has not been launched.，The time to market for electric pickups has been delayed again and again。And the workmanship of Tesla vehicles is often complained about.，Simple interior、Rough workmanship、Random materials are no longer new。Although the current Model Y has been greatly improved，But compared with domestic cars of the same level，Still inferior。

Closer to home，Back to the 4680 battery，After all, the main change of the Tesla large cylindrical battery is the structural innovation(But don't ignore the foreshadowing of solid-state batteries at the level of electrochemical innovation)，4680The battery and BYD's blade battery have a lot in common，The blade battery is equivalent to making the original square battery longer，4680The battery enlarges the original "little man" into a "short and fat man" (limited to the height of the chassis，The height of the cylindrical battery is limited)。

figure 1：Size comparison of blade battery and square battery，source：The internet

Theoretically，Cylindrical batteries can be made more "fat"，The capacity of a single battery will be larger (the volume of the 4680 battery is about 5.5 times that of the 2170 battery)。But the battery is not big enough，Also consider the difficulty of manufacturing、Fast charging performance、Heat dissipation and other aspects，Otherwise, the whole chassis is just a battery，Tesla’s most recent choice is a diameter of 46mm。
Others say that the cost per kilowatt hour of the 4680 battery has dropped by 14%，Will Tesla continue to cut prices? In fact, it is natural that the PACK cost of the battery pack will decrease after the battery is enlarged.。This is like replacing 500ml of mineral water with a 2.5L large bottle.，Natural bottle cap、Packaging boxes and other materials will be reduced。

It is worth noting that，Battery companies are still leaders in battery innovation，The CTP technology launched by CATL as early as 2019 has achieved a 40% reduction in parts、Structural innovation to increase energy density by 15%。And CTC technology，Many domestic companies have already begun to deploy。In the author's opinion：Innovation for 4680 cylindrical battery，Can be positive and optimistic，But don’t get too excited because of Tesla。

figure 2：Tesla chose 46mm diameter as the "upgraded version" of the 2170 cylindrical battery，source：Tesla

but，Power battery is one of the important components of electric vehicles，Every innovation deserves attention。Therefore, it is necessary for us to analyze the innovation of 4860 battery in detail.。
4680Extreme manufacturing behind the battery
[1] Tesla's "infinite ear" technology
From a manufacturing perspective，Any power battery company can make cylindrical batteries up to 46mm in diameter，But after the battery gets bigger，Problems such as fast charging and heat dissipation follow，This is the real headache，And the source of this pain comes from the extreme ears。
As the name suggests，The tabs are the "ears" of the positive and negative poles of the battery，It is a metal conductor that draws the positive and negative poles from the battery core，It is the contact point between the battery and the external circuit during charging and discharging。This contact point is not the copper sheet on the outside of the cylindrical battery we saw，But a connection inside the battery，Usually it is combined with the positive and negative current collectors (aluminum foil、Copper foil) welded together。

image 3：Schematic diagram of lithium battery lugs，source：The internet

Specific to the battery charging and discharging process，The electrons reach the tabs welded with the current collector of the battery after traversing the entire battery.，And then through the external wire to reach the other pole。Working on battery，The flow of electrons can easily lead to excessive local heat at the welding joint of the tab，In addition, the contact point is small，Not enough space for heat dissipation，This has always been a bottleneck for battery safety，The current fast charging is also subject to extreme ears。

In fact, battery companies all know that cylindrical batteries are going to be large-scaled，But after the cylindrical battery gets bigger，The distance the electron needs to traverse grows up，Resistance also increases with distance，The fever problem mentioned above has become more serious。

Figure 4：Schematic diagram of the internal lithium battery，source：Damask Research Institute

Then，What "black technology" does Tesla use to solve this problem? The path is nothing more than shortening the distance，Increase contact surface。Tesla plans to change the structure of the lug，Let the electrons be directly on the cell current collector and cover plate、Conduction between shells，Shorten the internal transmission distance of electrons，At the same time, the contact method of the tabs has also changed from point contact to surface contact，Greatly increase the heat dissipation area。

Speaking of here，4680The basic principle of the endless ear technology has been clear，The so-called non-polar ears are actually all-polar ears，This is just Musk’s word game。And this technique，It is also one of the biggest changes in the 4680 large cylindrical battery，Worth knocking on the blackboard。

Figure 5：Tesla full lug technology，source：Jindu Research Institute

It is worth mentioning that，ATL, the "predecessor" consumer lithium battery leader in the Ningde era, had patented lithium battery multi-pole technology as early as 2015 to reduce battery internal resistance。

This all-pole/no-pole technology，It is also the biggest change in the internal structure of the 4680 battery，Can effectively solve the current problem of fast charging and heating。But with it，The difficulty of manufacturing has also increased exponentially，Battery companies need to weld the tabs with lasers，The actual production requires extremely high manufacturing capacity and equipment。

until now，Tesla has not completely solved the problem of the yield of the lug processing.，This is why the mass production time of the promotion has to wait until 2022。

For all-pole technology，Another layer of meaning may lie in，When the cylindrical battery is made into all-pole ears，The cylinder winding process does not require frequent start and stop (when the battery is circulating in the production system，It must stop at the position of the tab in real time)，Can achieve true assembly line production，This will significantly increase production efficiency，reduce manufacturing cost。

Image 6：Cylindrical battery production process，source：Tesla

[2] Electrode dry process
The wet process of normal battery production is to combine electrical grade materials with solvents、Water etc. mixed into slurry，Then apply on aluminum foil、Above the copper foil，After tens of meters of drying equipment, compact to the required thickness。And Tesla’s dry process is to directly dry mix the materials，No solvent mixing，Then press the mixed powder on top of the metal pool，The advantage is that it eliminates the need for drying and solvent recovery processes。Switching between wet and dry methods，For friends who are familiar with industrial manufacturing，Should be familiar。

But the above seemingly simple things are very difficult to accomplish，How to achieve material uniformity in dry mixing，How to ensure adhesion after compaction，These pair of crafts、Equipment is severely tested。If this technology achieves，The simplification of the process reduces the manufacturing cost and environmental protection cost of the 4680 battery，At the same time, the initial investment cost and land occupation cost of the factory are also reduced accordingly (the drying line is tens of meters long)，Will benefit the further development of the new energy automobile industry，This kind of innovation is indeed worthy of recognition。

In fact，Tesla has not been able to achieve a dry manufacturing process before，Until Tesla acquired the super capacitor company Maxwell at a premium in 2019。Musk’s purpose is clear，I just fancy the company’s intellectual property。This also confirms what we talked about at the beginning，Don't myth Tesla，I have to eat one bite at a time。

Figure 7：Dry cell coating process，source：Guosen Securities

Panasonic's comeback，Can't single press 4680 battery
[1] Technological progress is expected to bring about the revival of cylindrical batteries
Review the development of power batteries in China，In the beginning, it was the world of lithium iron phosphate，In those few years, BYD, which specializes in lithium iron phosphate, was once the leader of domestic power batteries.，Later, due to policy and other factors, the ternary battery rose strongly，Rub the lithium iron phosphate directly on the ground。When everyone thinks that lithium iron phosphate is going to be turned off，Lithium iron phosphate miraculously counterattack，Its installed capacity has jumped from 13% in February 2020 to 60.8% in September this year，Has exceeded the ternary material for several months。
The reason why lithium iron phosphate can resurge，It should be attributed to the technological progress brought by the CTP and BYD blade batteries in the Ningde era，Bring the low energy density lithium iron phosphate back to life。After all, the safety and low cost of lithium iron phosphate have long been known，These just speed up the process of resurgence。

Two years from 2019 to present，CTP technology、Blade battery、Sodium ion battery、4680Cylindrical batteries have been launched one after another。When everyone feels that a certain route is unworkable，Power battery companies’ repeated extreme manufacturing breakthroughs and material system innovations have made incredible things a matter of course。

Why is Moore's Law in the semiconductor industry always valid?，Not because it is a law，It's the joint efforts of the entire industry chain companies that make Moore's Law effective。

So we should still look positively and optimistically about the technological development of power batteries，Under different scenarios，Every technical route has its place。When there is a breakthrough in ternary materials，Lithium Iron Phosphate；When lithium iron phosphate is regaining moisture，Lithium Iron Phosphate，This arbitrary dualism is obviously not feasible for the intricate lithium battery industry。

Many investors now habitually discuss 4680 batteries and high-nickel ternary materials together.，In fact, lithium iron phosphate and 4680 battery are also a good match，We will also pay attention to changes in this area。

Figure 8：Trend of power battery installed capacity，source：Company Announcement

Mapped to the cylindrical battery，Under the background that almost all mainstream car companies choose square or soft package solutions，The declining cylindrical battery hopes to usher in the second spring with the realization of the 4680 solution。now，Mainstream power battery companies at home and abroad are accelerating the pace of construction of 4680 cylindrical batteries，Seize the technical high ground ahead of time。

Picture 9：Some companies with 4680 cylindrical batteries，source：Zheshang Securities

[2] The former lithium battery leader is destined to be late
In the "Global Lithium Battery Arms Race：Ningde era and its overseas competitors" in the article，We interpret the current status of Panasonic batteries in detail。Although the old generations of lithium batteries in the past have nothing to say，But the failure of the business model caused it to be surpassed by one after another.。This time back with 4680 battery，Many people are optimistic that Panasonic will make a comeback，And even threaten Ningde’s status。

According to Panasonic，It is basically technically ready for mass production of Tesla 4680 batteries，Currently building a production line in Japan and conducting trial production，Prepare for mass production。Panasonic became the power battery boss in one fell swoop with Tesla's cylindrical battery order，This time Tesla is first to cooperate with Panasonic，Can Panasonic really come back with the 4680 battery?

From our perspectives，There is still a big question mark on this matter。

From 18650 to 2170，Panasonic has been working closely with Tesla，Its manufacturing experience and technical reserves are rich，Tesla naturally prioritizes cooperation with Panasonic。However, due to the extremely difficult laser welding of the tabs，Manufacturing experience is not enough，The result is that Panasonic's yield rate is still less than 70%.，According to industry chain research，The current Tesla laser welding research and development is breaking through with the company it has acquired，At present, there is still a big gap between the requirements of quality and mass production，This shows that Panasonic's first mover advantage has not formed a lead，The situation still cannot be overly optimistic。

on the other hand，Domestic power battery companies and South Korea’s LG、SK and others are accelerating the layout of 4680 cylindrical batteries，If Panasonic can't keep the 4680 battery's main supplier status in Tesla，Its global share may continue to decline。

What's worse for Panasonic is，There has been a lot of news that Tesla will build another Gigafactory in China，But not Panasonic’s home base in Japan，Not South Korea。Musk's intentions are already obvious，It is to put more power battery industry chain into the country，South Korea's LG, which can't make money on batteries, has taken the initiative to transfer its supply chain to China，The domestic power battery industry chain is expected to go to the next level。The most logical deduction is：At 4680，Panasonic planting trees，Picking fruits from the domestic industrial chain。

At that time, the country introduced Tesla to China，And give greater policy concessions，In fact, the autonomous controllability of China’s power battery technology has already been considered，Tesla was introduced for the strong and Hengqiang。So we don’t have to worry too much about the disruptive impact of the 4680 battery on domestic power battery companies.，Those singing empty voices should stop。

A new battlefield for domestic second-tier players
[1] The dawn of second-tier players is beginning
Back to the domestic market，The current pattern of power batteries in my country is the dominant one in the Ningde era，The remaining many second-tier companies have no other choice but to catch up，This 4680 cylindrical battery can be regarded as opening a new door for second-tier companies。On the square battery，It is indeed difficult for second-tier players to compete head-on with Ningde，But change to a cylindrical battery，Everyone is almost the same starting line，So who can win the cylindrical battery，Still inconclusive。
In the article "The Life and Death Competition of Power Batteries in the Shadow of the Ningde Era", we analyzed the second-line power battery companies to find another way.，Find different strategies。Now it’s rare to have a new battlefield like a cylindrical battery，Second-tier players are gearing up，Ready to do it。
The activist in this team is Yiwei Lithium Energy，115th of the month，Yiwei Lithium Energy announced that，The company's subsidiary Hubei Yiwei Power Co., Ltd. intends to sign the "Contract" with the Jingmen High-tech Industrial Development Zone Management Committee，Will invest in the construction of a 20GWh large cylindrical battery production line for passenger cars in Jingmen High-tech Zone，At this point，Yiwei Lithium Energy has a high probability of rushing to the 4680 battery。
More interesting is，As early as April 30th in the first half of the year，Yiwei Lithium Energy signed the "Electric Vehicle Strategic Cooperation Framework Agreement" with StoreDot。The latter announced on September 2 that it has developed a 4680 cylindrical battery that can be fully charged in 10 minutes.。It is worthy of being the "King of Tuyere" Yiwei Lithium Energy：Will there be momentum after 10 times in two years? 》The hot spot crazy demons summarized in the article，4680Type power battery has become its new focus。
Of course, Yiwei Lithium Energy already has technical reserves，Not just chasing hot spots。As early as June 2017，Yiwei Lithium Energy has built 4 new cylindrical battery production lines compatible with 18650 and 21700 batteries and with an annual output of 3.5GWh.。
In addition to Yiwei Lithium Energy，There are BAK batteries in China、Honeycomb Energy and others are working on 4680 batteries，The Ningde Era on the "Iron Throne"，And the menacing Yiwei Lithium Energy，The good show of power battery is being staged scene by scene。

【2】Competition of Extreme Manufacturing Capability
On Tesla Battery Day 2020，Musk highlights，In order to accelerate the development of electric vehicles，Tesla must produce more affordable electric cars。
Tesla from the battery design、Manufacturing process、Looking for opportunities to reduce costs in materials systems and other aspects，If these innovations become reality，Tesla's lithium battery range will increase by 54%，Costs will fall by 56%，Investment quota will drop by 69%。

Picture 10：Tesla will adopt 4680、Dry electrode、silicon、CTC and other methods to achieve cost reduction，source：Tesla

To complete the above innovation，Whether it’s the manufacturing process，Or efficient automated production，Are testing the extreme manufacturing capabilities。In the previous article，We have repeatedly mentioned that the innovation of power batteries mainly comes from material system innovation and structural innovation。Today when the material system is difficult to break through，Structural innovation has become the focus of competition among major power battery companies，The driving force behind structural innovation mainly comes from extreme manufacturing capabilities。
From the point of view of innovation and difficulty of mass production of 4680 battery，In the future, extreme manufacturing capacity will become one of the key factors for power battery companies to win。And the manufacturing capacity，It is the masterpiece of the domestic manufacturing industry。

Arsenic and Honey
For any changes to the power battery，Can't be taken lightly，The blade at the beginning of the year is still fresh in everyone’s memory。4680Large cylinder，Without mythical Tesla，We have to look at it in a correct way。
According to the technical information that has been disclosed so far，It is not difficult for us to come to a conclusion：Since the 4680 battery is mainly an innovation at the structural level，Does not involve changes in the underlying technology，Therefore, the influence of equipment and materials companies is relatively limited，Compared to 2170，4680The production process is basically the same，Use all the materials that should be used，This is not like a solid state battery，Put the electrolyte directly、The diaphragm is dry。
[1] Changes in the industrial chain
The biggest change mentioned above，Is the manufacturing process。Especially due to changes in the welding of the tabs，Which is the laser welding section，Higher requirements for welding，Will bring increment to laser welding related enterprises，Such as United Win Laser、Han's Laser、Yifei Laser (unlisted), etc.。
In addition, after the cylindrical battery is enlarged,，It puts forward higher requirements on the structural parts of the battery，The processing technology of the battery casing becomes more difficult，Need better equipment to crimp，This aspect is good for related equipment companies，Such as Ningbo Jingda、Slack。But is Kodali bad or good，Still need more information on the future industrial chain to confirm。
Of course, there may also be areas damaged by this，Such as battery thermal management。Low internal resistance with full pole ear structure、Less fever，No complicated cooling system is required，And the number of batteries in the battery pack using large cylindrical batteries is correspondingly reduced，So the thermal management of the battery pack will become simple，As the leader in thermal management，Early Sanhua Intelligent Control may be affected。
[2] Share of power battery companies
Except for supporting companies in the industry chain，What everyone is most concerned about is the change in the share of lithium battery players。The previous article also clearly stated，For Panasonic，4680May not be able to play the role of a life-saving straw。
And because 4680 emphasizes extreme manufacturing capabilities，We are more optimistic about domestic power battery companies，The construction of Tesla's second domestic factory has undoubtedly strengthened our confidence。With the deepening of Tesla's domestic production，The global share of domestic power battery companies is expected to increase further，For the new species 4680，Domestic power battery companies，Will open a new round of contest。
finally，What we want to say is，Rome was not built in a day，Especially for the huge and lengthy industrial chain of power batteries，A technology needs enough time for trial and error and verification from the proposal to trial production to real mass production。We will continue to track the latest developments of the 4680 battery，Present more valuable analysis。