JW insights)think：
– The rapid development of the Bluetooth chip industry，BLE chip market has great potential for development。
– Wearables are a key driver of market growth，TWS Bluetooth headset chip is particularly prominent。
– Multi-potential Bluetooth market application boost，Will achieve growth against the trend。
Bluetooth chip is a collection of circuits that integrate Bluetooth functions，For short-range wireless communication。Divided according to the Bluetooth transmission standard，Bluetooth chips can be divided into classic Bluetooth chips and BLE (Bluetooth Low Energy) chips。If divided by the application category of Bluetooth，Mainly audio streaming equipment、data transmission、positioning service，And Mesh network, etc.。

Gartner data show，2020Global Bluetooth chip manufacturers' annual revenue was US$2.034 billion，2019$1.814 billion per year，12.1% increase。2020The top five Bluetooth chip manufacturers in terms of revenue in the year are：Qualcomm、Nordic（Nordic Semiconductor）、Apple、Hengxuan Technology (BES)、Infineon Technologies。
From the overall bluetooth chip global market pattern，JW insights thinks，Participants in the Bluetooth chip industry are mainly foreign semiconductor manufacturers，Qualcomm、Texas Instruments、Dialog、Nordic、MediaTek etc.；Broadcom integration、Actions Technology、Hengxuan Technology、Zhuhai Jerry、Zhongke Lanxun etc.。in addition，Tai Ling Wei、Bluetooth chip start-ups represented by Taoxin Technology，Enter the market through vertical products，In a specific direction (e.g.：Low-power Bluetooth chip (BLE)) and application scenarios have good competitive strength。
With the evolution of the Bluetooth standard, Bluetooth applications experience different scenarios
With the evolution of the Bluetooth standard，Experienced different scenarios in Bluetooth applications。
4.0Bluetooth before the version is mainly used for computers，Mobile phones and other devices，As an interface for data and audio transmission。Benefit from being a standard mobile phone，Bluetooth has an obvious advantage in the Internet ecosystem。
4.0/4.2Version application scenarios are mainly various small interconnected devices，Smart home，Smart buildings, etc.，Drive wearable，The wave of smart home and other fields，Giving birth to a large number of Internet of Things application companies based on connection and data、Module Company。
5.0And the release of version 5.1 in addition to bringing qualitative changes to efficiency and user experience in traditional applications，It also brings a broader application space to Bluetooth，Including networking and location services。Application scenarios have also been extended to smart cities、Industrial Interconnection、car、Various scenes such as medical treatment。
The Bluetooth BLE chip market has great potential for development
Bluetooth low energy chip technology is low cost、short distance、Interoperable robust wireless technology，Working in the license-free 2.4GHz ISM radio frequency band，Has BLE4.0，BLE4.1，BLE4.2，BLE5.0，BLE5.1，Multiple protocol versions such as BLE5.2。
In the Bluetooth low energy chip market，There are two different chip designs, single-mode and dual-mode。Single-mode Bluetooth chip refers to a chip that only supports low-power transmission function，In addition to supporting low-power transmission, dual-mode Bluetooth，Also supports classic Bluetooth transmission，This makes the Bluetooth chip compatible with versions below 4.0。

Image Source：Bluetooth Technology Alliance

Bluetooth Technology Alliance(Bluetooth SIG)2021 Bluetooth market report forecast，Until 2025，The annual shipments of Bluetooth devices will grow from 4 billion units in 2020 to more than 6 billion units，2020-2025The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) during the period was 10%。Shipments of Bluetooth low energy single-mode devices are expected to more than triple in the next five years。Bluetooth low energy will continue to have a decisive impact on the market，Expected by 2025，96%Bluetooth devices will include Bluetooth Low Energy。

From the perspective of BLE chip manufacturers，Nordic、Dialog、The three overseas BLE chip manufacturers of Texas Instruments together account for 61% of the global BLE chip market share，Among them, Nordic accounts for 40%，Ranked first。From the perspective of market share，Domestic BLE is still in its infancy stage of development，Compared with the performance of overseas Bluetooth chip manufacturers，The BLE products of domestic Bluetooth chip manufacturers still have a big gap。

But with domestic demand driven and policy driven，Domestic high-end BLE import substitution opportunities are gradually highlighted。JW insights analyzes and thinks，TWS Bluetooth headset chip is an opportunity for domestic and foreign manufacturers to narrow the gap，If domestic chip manufacturers can seize the opportunity in front of the huge market，Accumulate technology and market foundation，Or will become the industry leader。

Wearables are a key driver of market growth

The Bluetooth Technology Alliance released the "Newest Information on the Bluetooth Market in 2021" said，Although the outbreak of the new crown epidemic has delayed the growth of Bluetooth device shipments in 2020 by one year，Markets such as smartphones and automobiles are not performing well，However, some markets such as wearable devices and positioning systems have achieved substantial growth。

IDC "China Wireless Headphone Market Quarterly Tracking Report，2021"The second quarter of the year" shows，2021China’s wireless Bluetooth headset market shipped 53.74 million units in the first half of the year，Year-on-year increase of 26.8%。in，The growth rate of true wireless headsets leads the overall Bluetooth headset market，202136.25 million units shipped in the first half of the year，Year-on-year increase of 32.1%。

Looking specifically from the Chinese market，IDC expects，2021China’s Bluetooth headset market shipped 120 million annually，26% year-on-year increase。

JW insights thinks，Market shipments of Bluetooth headsets in wearable devices have grown significantly。The last two years，Focused by manufacturers、Driven by falling prices and new features and new forms，Bluetooth headsets will maintain relatively rapid growth。
Simultaneously，JW insights thinks，2021Affected by the epidemic in the year, superimposed cars "lack of cores"，Car production cut，This will in turn lead to a reduction in the demand for Bluetooth chips in the automotive electronics market。

Multi-potential market applications will help achieve contrarian growth
It is not difficult to see the main trends in the field of Bluetooth solutions highlighted in the "New Bluetooth Market 2021 Information"，Bluetooth location services in the future、LE Audio technology application direction、The market prospects for commercial interconnected lighting are promising。

01 Bluetooth location service devices will rebound and show an upward trend in the next five years
The outbreak of the new crown epidemic and the resulting travel and work restrictions have led to a decrease in the deployment of Bluetooth location services in the short term。However，As the market continues to be interested in asset tracking and indoor positioning use cases，Analysts expect the deployment of Bluetooth location services to rebound by the end of 2021，And achieve a compound annual growth rate of 32% from now to 2025。also，Expected to 2025，The deployment of Bluetooth medical location services will increase 5 times。

02 LE Audio will drive substantial growth in future sales and use cases
The completion of LE Audio technical specifications in 2021 is expected to further strengthen the Bluetooth ecosystem，And drive greater demand for Bluetooth headsets and speakers，Expected between 2021 and 2025，Annual shipments of Bluetooth audio transmission equipment will increase by 1.5 times。JW Insights expects to support LE Audio in the new version of Android in 2022。

03 Bluetooth commercial interconnection lighting becomes mainstream
The main task of the Bluetooth device network is to support building automation、Control and operational efficiency，The popularity of LED、Higher energy efficiency、Faster deployment capabilities and higher quality user experience are driving the demand for commercial interconnected lighting solutions。Expected to 2029，Revenue in this market will reach 19.1 billion U.S. dollars。Commercial interconnected lighting and smart home solutions are the fastest growing areas of Bluetooth device network solutions，Its compound annual growth rate in the next five years is expected to reach 34%。

Summarize
Overall，Bluetooth Low Energy first broke out in the wearable field，The future explosion point is mainly concentrated in the application field of the Internet of Things technology，like：Smart home、Smart Building、Smart City、Intelligent industry and other fields。According to the development history of Bluetooth technology，Long term，Experiential consumption driven by new technology functions、Application demand will be an important driving force for the continued growth of the Bluetooth market。

In recent years，Driven by the continuous update and iteration of mobile phone fast charging technology，The mobile power industry has also achieved rapid development，Product form tends to be perfect。And since Xiaomi entered the mobile power market，Cost-effective products in the entire mobile power market followed one after another，And entered the blowout era。
Although the catfish effect of low-price competition has completely activated the entire mobile power market，But it also compressed the profit margins of many manufacturers in the mobile power supply industry chain to a certain extent.。at the same time，The mobile power supply also has certain limitations in the scope of use，Such as outdoor travel is becoming more and more popular today，Mobile power can no longer meet the diverse needs of users。And outdoor energy storage power supply as an emerging market segment，Is gradually being paid attention to by more and more manufacturers。
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As a companion product for smartphones，The development of the mobile power market is directly related to the sales of mobile phones。Industry public data display，Driven by the mobile internet and smart phones，The scale of China's mobile power supply market grew from 3.4 billion yuan to 36.3 billion yuan between 2011 and 2019。However, as the growth rate of smartphone shipments declines in 2020，The market size of China's mobile power supply is expected to drop to 31 billion yuan in 2020。

The mobile power market has been fully developed in the past few years，Whether it is the capacity from 3350mAh for a single 18650 battery cell to 26800mAh which does not require registration and boarding required by civil aviation，It is still the power from the most traditional 5W to the 100W fast charge with the USB PD standard online，Have formed a complete product line。
The reporter learned，In the current mainstream USB PD fast charging mobile power basin，Millet、Huawei、Samsung、OPPO、Nubia and other terminal mobile phone brands and ANKER、Baseus、belkin、Well-known digital accessory brands such as Mophie have large-scale product layouts，The product range is very rich。

From the perspective of the industrial chain，With the advancement of semiconductor localization，Mobile power chip takes the lead in achieving autonomous controllability。And has formed a two-level division in the rapid product iteration，Among them, the mobile power chip market above 30W is dominated by Nanxin，18The W-22.5W fast-charging mobile power supply market is mainly divided by the highly integrated SOC chips of Injixin and Zhirong.。
The market competition for USB PD fast charging mobile power chips has come to an end，For the majority of manufacturers，The choice of mobile power chip solutions tends to be unified，This also means that the developed products will face serious homogeneity problems，Declining product competitiveness；at the same time，Profit space has also been gradually compressed。
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Portable energy storage power supply、Outdoor power supply，Also known as portable lithium ion battery energy storage power supply (English Portable Energy Storage，PES）。The two most common uses of this type of product are outdoor travel、Earthquake and disaster prevention。

Outdoor travel applications，No matter in Europe or America，Still in my country，More and more self-driving travel enthusiasts、Motorhome travel、Outdoor travel team，And individual players，The surge in demand for portable energy storage power supplies，The diversified functions of this type of product，Provide power for users outdoors、Lighting and other uses，Enriched outdoor life。
And in the use of earthquake and disaster prevention，Can deal with power outages、illumination、SOS rescue and other needs，Especially in earthquakes、In severe natural disasters such as hurricanes，Its importance is particularly prominent。

Besides，Medical equipment power supply and lithium generators，Become an emerging application market for outdoor portable energy storage power supplies。Medical equipment power supply，Mainly used for ventilators，In the wild、Emergency response in emergencies such as first aid，To solve the power interruption caused by the absence of mains power，So as to reduce the risk of personal safety in emergencies。
The reporter has reported on and summarized the launch of 33 products from 17 brands，Its capacity ranges from 100Wh to 6000Wh，This also means the rise of the outdoor power supply market。
The domestic epidemic gradually subsided last year，The central government has introduced a series of measures to restore people's livelihood，Among them is the "street stall economy" that has spread all over the country recently.，Once became a hot topic after people's tea and dinner。Promulgation of relevant national policies，Promoting the stall economy，Announced for readers of Amazon’s best-selling
And there is a more interesting phenomenon in this sales ranking：The cheapest product is not the best selling。Which means，When American users are buying products，Compared to price，User experience and brand influence may be more important。
Outdoor power supplies are located in the Outdoor Generator category on Amazon.com，Diesel is included in this category、Gasoline generator and outdoor power supply with battery。This shows the mission of outdoor power，Is to replace the fuel generator。Replace fuel vehicles with new energy vehicles，Electric motorcycles replace fuel motorcycles，it's easy to see，The mission of outdoor power in the new energy market has been established。

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Mentioned above，At present, the mobile power market has completed a reshuffle at the chip scheme level，The development of the market has also entered a stable stage，Although there are new players entering the game every year，But in fact, the competition between major brand products has also changed from technological innovation to price competition.。Due to the homogenization of product solutions and the gradual compression of profit margins，It also makes some veteran players have to start to choose strategic transformation one after another，Open up the emerging outdoor power supply market。
According to the data，At present, there are、anchor、Aukey、baseus、Hahiro、Dubiko、ORICO、Many well-known digital accessory brands, including PISEN, are actively expanding their outdoor power supply product lines，Some of these brands have already achieved mass shipments of products，Earned the first pot of gold in the emerging outdoor power supply market。
Let's take a look at these manufacturers who have moved from the power bank field to the outdoor power supply market.，See how their products are laid out。
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Anker as the world's leading charging brand，Star products mainly include mobile power、Wireless charging、Car charger、Wall charger and charging cable。Anker is also a leader in Power Delivery fast charging technology，Prioritize the application of this technology to mobile phones、tablet、laptop，Committed to providing consumers with a better fast charging experience。
Anker GaN charger is the first application of GaN in the field of consumer electronics charging，The application of gallium nitride components in power products can achieve high power output in an ultra-small volume，Changing the design and manufacturing plan of the industry、Change consumer habits。
ANKER launched two outdoor power products at CES200，They are built-in 57600mAh battery，PowerHouse with AC maximum output power of 100W 200，And support AC 110V inverter output、45PowerHouse with W USB PD two-way fast charging 100。
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Aoji International was registered and founded in Hamburg, Germany in 2005，It is a multinational e-commerce company with foreign trade B2C e-commerce operation as its core business。The company's mission is to "lead Chinese brands to the world"，Committed to building a world-leading technology consumer product brand，Mainly engaged in intelligence with innovative user experience、Independent research and development of digital consumer and household products、Design and sales。
After more than ten years of practice and operation，Aoji from traditional foreign trade to transformation foreign trade e-commerce，And then to the layout of the small language own B2C platform，Avoid the highly competitive market environment and achieve steady development，Has grown to be one of the leading companies in the field of cross-border e-commerce。
Recent，Aukey launched an outdoor power supply on Japanese crowdfunding platform Makuake，Round appearance，The design is very delicate。The product is equipped with two AC inverter output interfaces，Four USB-A ports、A USB-C interface，And is equipped with a car cigarette lighter interface and a display screen，Full-featured。
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Hailutong is a large-scale research and development company、manufacture、Sales-integrated communication digital products company，Customers all over the country and more than 50 countries overseas。Simultaneously，Hailutong is still a well-known communication in China、One of the manufacturers of digital accessories，Owns a science and technology industrial park covering an area of ​​more than 60,000 square meters，Equipped with hundreds of advanced manufacturing and automatic testing equipment，And built a high-level dust-free workshop and advanced automated production lines，Constitute a high-efficiency、Large-scale production base。
With innovative products、Efficient supply chain and strong strategy execution，Hailutong creates excellent mobile communication and digital IT peripheral accessories products for global users。Products include smartphone batteries、Digital camera battery、Portable power bank、Smart phone charger、Business travel charger、Vehicle-mounted smart charger、Tablet PC professional charger、Personal computer or laptop charging adapter, etc.。Committed to becoming a communication、The creator and leader of high-quality products in the digital accessories industry。
Since a few years ago，Hailutong began to exert its strength in the outdoor power supply market，Launched a series of new products。at the same time，Hailutong also spent a lot of money to invest in 18650 batteries and 18650 battery packs，Solve the core problems of outdoor power products。
Hailutong G300 outdoor power supply is equipped with 2 AC triangle jacks、2AC two-pin jack，The energy of the battery cell can be output to the electric fan through the internal inverter module、juicer、Refrigerators and other equipment。Equipped with 3 DC circular connectors at the same time，Can be used to power DC bulbs；4A USB-A output port and a USB-C charging port can be used for mobile phones、Charging of laptops and other devices。also，This product uses an all-metal shell design，Has a certain anti-fall performance，Ensure the stability of use under outdoor conditions。
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baseus is a research and development group of Shenzhen Best Technology Co., Ltd.、design、produce、Sales-integrated consumer electronics brand，Founded in 2011。baseus is simplified from the brand slogan base on user，It means that the brand insists on thinking from the perspective of users，Products have high aesthetic and practical value。
After 8 years of growth, baseus has become a leading enterprise in China's consumer electronics industry，And always insist on design innovation，Adhere to the design concept of practical aesthetics，Focus on the new technology、Environmentally friendly materials、Fashion elements are integrated into product design，Create products with baseus style。
Currently，baseus has established 11 complete product lines，Centered on a Baseus，Simultaneously develop and produce Baseus games、Baseus Music、Baseus Lighting、Baseus car products and Baseus home appliances and other products，Continuously meet the needs of users for smart products。
2020Baseus began to get involved in the outdoor power supply industry，Its first product is called Baseus Energy Portable PES Car Start Outdoor Power Supply。Product is easy to carry，Two major functions: emergency ignition and energy storage charging，Built-in 16000mAh large capacity battery pack，Support super large rate discharge，Maximum 1600A peak starting current，Support car、SUV、MPV，Pickup、Emergency ignition of 12V battery gasoline vehicles and 12V diesel vehicles such as trucks，And supports up to 100W inverter output。
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Guangdong Dianxiaoer Technology Co., Ltd. since 2004，Committed to the research and development of portable power solutions，Integrate product planning, production and sales，Is a well-known brand in Shenzhen、Guangdong famous trademark、Shenzhen High-tech Member Unit、Initiator of China's Portable Energy Storage Industry Standard。
Dian Xiaoer is the first batch of companies to enter the outdoor power supply industry，At present, Dian Xiaoer outdoor power supply 80 has been launched、Dian's outdoor power supply 200、Dian's outdoor power supply 255S、Dian Xiao Er outdoor power supply 300、Dian's outdoor power supply 400、Dian Xiaoer Outdoor Power 500、Dianxiaoer outdoor power supply 600S、Dianxiaoer outdoor power supply 1000、Dian Xiaoer Outdoor Power Supply 1000S、Dianxiaoer outdoor power supply 1100Pro and many other products。
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Shenzhen Dibike Electronics Co., Ltd. is a national high-tech enterprise，Leading company in the field of consumer electronics， Provided from ID design，R&D，One-stop service from manufacturing to transportation。Product categories include wireless chargers、mobile power、Energy storage、Car chargers and smart products, etc.。DBK has a headquarters and two manufacturing plants in the Pearl River Delta region of Guangdong，Which covers an area of ​​200,000 square meters，More than 3000 employees。
Dibuco is a well-known manufacturer of fast charging sources in China，Become an ODM/OEM supplier for many well-known brands at home and abroad。at the same time，Dibuco has also been deeply involved in the field of outdoor energy storage power supply for many years，At present, a variety of products have been launched for the outdoor small energy storage power supply market。In terms of new energy，Dibuko also made an advance layout，Established a battery cell factory in Jiangxi，Committed to monomer lithium ion design and development、Research and development and production of automobile power battery PACK assembly system。
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Shenzhen Yuanchuang Times Technology Co., Ltd. was established in 2009，Subsidiary brand ORICO，It is an innovative national high-tech enterprise focusing on USB data transmission and USB charging technology。
Since the establishment of ORICO，11Years have opened up offline channels at home and abroad in many countries around the world，Products are exported to various countries，Independent agency and distribution in multiple countries。At the same time B2C business sector，ORICO has been stored in an external hard disk box for four consecutive years in recent years、USB3.0 peripherals have been recognized by the industry in many fields，Its smart fast charge、Anti-surge power strips maintain rapid growth in the top 5 of the entire network。
In the outdoor power market, ORICO has already deployed ahead of schedule，According to different application scenarios，120W launched、300W、500A total of six products in three power ranges of W，And it incorporates the popular USB-C interface into its outdoor power products，Not only can support AC inverter output，High-power PD fast charging can also meet the charger needs of most electronic devices。
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PISEN is a leading enterprise of 3C smart mobile peripheral products，2003Founded in Shenzhen, China，Mainly around mobile phones、flat、Smart Internet of Things with the "Three Screens" of Smart TVs、Power support、Audio and video playback、Intelligent storage and other fields provide users with excellent quality products and services。
After more than ten years of hard work and innovation，"PISEN" has grown into a well-known international brand in China and well-known in the world，Maintained the top sales in the industry for more than ten years。Pinsheng also started from the original traditional manufacturing enterprise，Successfully evolved into owning from R&D and manufacturing，To wholesale and retail、Omni-channel marketing and supply chain，Aftermarket service，A compound enterprise group with the advantages of a complete industrial chain。
Facing the emerging outdoor energy storage power supply market，PISEN launched a model with 622Wh，Support 600 output products，Using automotive-grade batteries，Two AC inverter output interfaces support 220V sine wave output，Can directly be a car refrigerator、Power supply for fans and other products，Three USB-A ports can be used for mobile phone charging，USB-C port supports 100W bidirectional PD fast charge；Built-in LCD display，Can display product power in real time。
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Yubo is a 3C digital brand located in Shenzhen，Since its establishment in 2005, it has focused on 3C peripheral areas，The company has been developing for 15 years so far。Yubo has always guided the corporate culture with the concept of "quality changes life"，The product field is mainly based on battery-type 3C peripheral products as the leading force，charger、Cable、Car accessories and audio products are supplemented side by side，Actively promote the development of other products while maintaining the dominant force。
Battery products are the product line that Yubo is proud of，It currently has mobile phone batteries、Multiple battery categories such as power banks and outdoor power supplies，Long-term and solid product development has accumulated a very good reputation in the consumer circle，And the leading battery products are also welcomed by consumers。
In the outdoor power market，Yubo launched many self-developed new products，Including Yubo YB-EN1S、Yubo YB-EN1、Yubo YB-150C、Yubo EN300WL-PD，In addition, there is Yubo EN1000、Yubo EN500S、Yu Bo EN1、Yubo EN1S and other outdoor power products。
Summarize
Relative to mobile power，Outdoor power supply is limited by usage scenarios，At present, it is not just needed for domestic consumers，Even in the international market，Most buying groups are also family-based，This is also doomed to the weakness of outdoor power supply in terms of user base.。But as an emerging market in the field of consumer power supplies，Outdoor power supply has a high threshold、High product customer unit price、Features of high profit returns；Can attract many well-known digital brands into the game，On the one hand, it is the proof of the company's strength，On the other hand, it is enough to illustrate the considerable prospects of the market。
The outdoor power market and the traditional mobile power market are not opposites，But a highly complementary relationship。The current outdoor power supply market is still in its infancy，The overall market structure has not yet been finalized，This also provides a large enough stage for every player who enters the game.，The future can be expected。
Outdoor power is also an indispensable branch in the wave of new energy，Shoulder to replace gasoline in the portable generator market、The mission of diesel generators，Broad prospects for the future market。

Under the wave of electrification，Any disturbance in the lithium battery industry has been infinitely amplified。Recent，As the time for the 4680 battery to become available is approaching，4680Related sectors of the battery began to restless。
Last September，We are the first time after the release of Tesla’s "Battery Day"，Just published an article to interpret the technical content of the 4680 battery。So what impact will the final mass production of 4680 batteries have on the power battery landscape?，This article attempts to make an interpretation based on the existing information，For your reference。
Don't myth Tesla
As the standard bearer of new energy vehicles，Tesla is the king of topics，Anything that involves Tesla，Many followers first came to Tesla's side。From the localization of Model 3 to Model Y price reduction，It seems that the market has qualitatively determined the ending in advance。This is not，Recently, the news that Tesla is about to mass produce 4680 batteries has once again become a hot topic。
It is undeniable that Tesla is the leader of new energy vehicles，Regardless of the sales or its in the Sanden system、Smart cockpit、The technical capabilities of autonomous driving are industry-leading。
but，most of the time，We are too mythical Tesla。
When Tesla was going to enter China，Many people who don't know the truth yelled the sharks，Worry about the living space of local brands and new car manufacturers。Now it seems，Domestic car companies and new car manufacturers have not only survived，Still alive，The monthly sales of "Wei Xiaoli" has already exceeded 10,000，Become the backbone of domestic smart electric brands。
Excluding the subjective level，Musk is radical and even sometimes unreliable style should let the market calm down first，Don't rush to set the tone for the success or failure of the 4680 battery。Technical route for power battery，The cylindrical battery dominated by Tesla has not become mainstream，in addition，The high-nickel ternary battery that Musk had strongly admired earlier did not form an overwhelming advantage.，On the contrary, lithium iron phosphate is highly sought after，Even Tesla itself launched the Model 3 lithium iron phosphate version。
There are also some examples that can be used as evidence。Musk has repeatedly talked about the value of Bitcoin in public，January of this year，Tesla bought $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin，It's March，Musk said on Twitter，Tesla now accepts Bitcoin payments。Because of the heat of Tesla and Musk，Bitcoin, already on the cusp of the storm, once again ushered in a price surge。
The end result was unexpected，Only two months have passed，It's May 12，Musk "turned his face" and said that because Bitcoin consumes too much power，Not in line with the concept of sustainable development，Tesla will no longer accept Bitcoin payments，Invite Bitcoin's crash。
You know that Tesla has already sold $272 million worth of Bitcoin in the first quarter，And made about 101 million U.S. dollars in profit from it。This wave of Musk's operation is somewhat inconsistent with his "Iron Man" persona.。Let’s look at Tesla’s quarterly report this year，Its profit in the first quarter was $438 million，An increase of 16 million U.S. dollars from last year，In fact, Tesla's sale of Bitcoin and electric car credits accounted for a large part of the income。
And Musk has vowed to guarantee the L5 level of autonomous driving technology has not been launched.，The time to market for electric pickups has been delayed again and again。And the workmanship of Tesla vehicles is often complained about.，Simple interior、Rough workmanship、Random materials are no longer new。Although the current Model Y has been greatly improved，But compared with domestic cars of the same level，Still inferior。

Closer to home，Back to the 4680 battery，After all, the main change of the Tesla large cylindrical battery is the structural innovation(But don't ignore the foreshadowing of solid-state batteries at the level of electrochemical innovation)，4680The battery and BYD's blade battery have a lot in common，The blade battery is equivalent to making the original square battery longer，4680The battery enlarges the original "little man" into a "short and fat man" (limited to the height of the chassis，The height of the cylindrical battery is limited)。

figure 1：Size comparison of blade battery and square battery，source：The internet

Theoretically，Cylindrical batteries can be made more "fat"，The capacity of a single battery will be larger (the volume of the 4680 battery is about 5.5 times that of the 2170 battery)。But the battery is not big enough，Also consider the difficulty of manufacturing、Fast charging performance、Heat dissipation and other aspects，Otherwise, the whole chassis is just a battery，Tesla’s most recent choice is a diameter of 46mm。
Others say that the cost per kilowatt hour of the 4680 battery has dropped by 14%，Will Tesla continue to cut prices? In fact, it is natural that the PACK cost of the battery pack will decrease after the battery is enlarged.。This is like replacing 500ml of mineral water with a 2.5L large bottle.，Natural bottle cap、Packaging boxes and other materials will be reduced。

It is worth noting that，Battery companies are still leaders in battery innovation，The CTP technology launched by CATL as early as 2019 has achieved a 40% reduction in parts、Structural innovation to increase energy density by 15%。And CTC technology，Many domestic companies have already begun to deploy。In the author's opinion：Innovation for 4680 cylindrical battery，Can be positive and optimistic，But don’t get too excited because of Tesla。

figure 2：Tesla chose 46mm diameter as the "upgraded version" of the 2170 cylindrical battery，source：Tesla

but，Power battery is one of the important components of electric vehicles，Every innovation deserves attention。Therefore, it is necessary for us to analyze the innovation of 4860 battery in detail.。
4680Extreme manufacturing behind the battery
[1] Tesla's "infinite ear" technology
From a manufacturing perspective，Any power battery company can make cylindrical batteries up to 46mm in diameter，But after the battery gets bigger，Problems such as fast charging and heat dissipation follow，This is the real headache，And the source of this pain comes from the extreme ears。
As the name suggests，The tabs are the "ears" of the positive and negative poles of the battery，It is a metal conductor that draws the positive and negative poles from the battery core，It is the contact point between the battery and the external circuit during charging and discharging。This contact point is not the copper sheet on the outside of the cylindrical battery we saw，But a connection inside the battery，Usually it is combined with the positive and negative current collectors (aluminum foil、Copper foil) welded together。

image 3：Schematic diagram of lithium battery lugs，source：The internet

Specific to the battery charging and discharging process，The electrons reach the tabs welded with the current collector of the battery after traversing the entire battery.，And then through the external wire to reach the other pole。Working on battery，The flow of electrons can easily lead to excessive local heat at the welding joint of the tab，In addition, the contact point is small，Not enough space for heat dissipation，This has always been a bottleneck for battery safety，The current fast charging is also subject to extreme ears。

In fact, battery companies all know that cylindrical batteries are going to be large-scaled，But after the cylindrical battery gets bigger，The distance the electron needs to traverse grows up，Resistance also increases with distance，The fever problem mentioned above has become more serious。

Figure 4：Schematic diagram of the internal lithium battery，source：Damask Research Institute

Then，What "black technology" does Tesla use to solve this problem? The path is nothing more than shortening the distance，Increase contact surface。Tesla plans to change the structure of the lug，Let the electrons be directly on the cell current collector and cover plate、Conduction between shells，Shorten the internal transmission distance of electrons，At the same time, the contact method of the tabs has also changed from point contact to surface contact，Greatly increase the heat dissipation area。

Speaking of here，4680The basic principle of the endless ear technology has been clear，The so-called non-polar ears are actually all-polar ears，This is just Musk’s word game。And this technique，It is also one of the biggest changes in the 4680 large cylindrical battery，Worth knocking on the blackboard。

Figure 5：Tesla full lug technology，source：Jindu Research Institute

It is worth mentioning that，ATL, the "predecessor" consumer lithium battery leader in the Ningde era, had patented lithium battery multi-pole technology as early as 2015 to reduce battery internal resistance。

This all-pole/no-pole technology，It is also the biggest change in the internal structure of the 4680 battery，Can effectively solve the current problem of fast charging and heating。But with it，The difficulty of manufacturing has also increased exponentially，Battery companies need to weld the tabs with lasers，The actual production requires extremely high manufacturing capacity and equipment。

until now，Tesla has not completely solved the problem of the yield of the lug processing.，This is why the mass production time of the promotion has to wait until 2022。

For all-pole technology，Another layer of meaning may lie in，When the cylindrical battery is made into all-pole ears，The cylinder winding process does not require frequent start and stop (when the battery is circulating in the production system，It must stop at the position of the tab in real time)，Can achieve true assembly line production，This will significantly increase production efficiency，reduce manufacturing cost。

Image 6：Cylindrical battery production process，source：Tesla

[2] Electrode dry process
The wet process of normal battery production is to combine electrical grade materials with solvents、Water etc. mixed into slurry，Then apply on aluminum foil、Above the copper foil，After tens of meters of drying equipment, compact to the required thickness。And Tesla’s dry process is to directly dry mix the materials，No solvent mixing，Then press the mixed powder on top of the metal pool，The advantage is that it eliminates the need for drying and solvent recovery processes。Switching between wet and dry methods，For friends who are familiar with industrial manufacturing，Should be familiar。

But the above seemingly simple things are very difficult to accomplish，How to achieve material uniformity in dry mixing，How to ensure adhesion after compaction，These pair of crafts、Equipment is severely tested。If this technology achieves，The simplification of the process reduces the manufacturing cost and environmental protection cost of the 4680 battery，At the same time, the initial investment cost and land occupation cost of the factory are also reduced accordingly (the drying line is tens of meters long)，Will benefit the further development of the new energy automobile industry，This kind of innovation is indeed worthy of recognition。

In fact，Tesla has not been able to achieve a dry manufacturing process before，Until Tesla acquired the super capacitor company Maxwell at a premium in 2019。Musk’s purpose is clear，I just fancy the company’s intellectual property。This also confirms what we talked about at the beginning，Don't myth Tesla，I have to eat one bite at a time。

Figure 7：Dry cell coating process，source：Guosen Securities

Panasonic's comeback，Can't single press 4680 battery
[1] Technological progress is expected to bring about the revival of cylindrical batteries
Review the development of power batteries in China，In the beginning, it was the world of lithium iron phosphate，In those few years, BYD, which specializes in lithium iron phosphate, was once the leader of domestic power batteries.，Later, due to policy and other factors, the ternary battery rose strongly，Rub the lithium iron phosphate directly on the ground。When everyone thinks that lithium iron phosphate is going to be turned off，Lithium iron phosphate miraculously counterattack，Its installed capacity has jumped from 13% in February 2020 to 60.8% in September this year，Has exceeded the ternary material for several months。
The reason why lithium iron phosphate can resurge，It should be attributed to the technological progress brought by the CTP and BYD blade batteries in the Ningde era，Bring the low energy density lithium iron phosphate back to life。After all, the safety and low cost of lithium iron phosphate have long been known，These just speed up the process of resurgence。

Two years from 2019 to present，CTP technology、Blade battery、Sodium ion battery、4680Cylindrical batteries have been launched one after another。When everyone feels that a certain route is unworkable，Power battery companies’ repeated extreme manufacturing breakthroughs and material system innovations have made incredible things a matter of course。

Why is Moore's Law in the semiconductor industry always valid?，Not because it is a law，It's the joint efforts of the entire industry chain companies that make Moore's Law effective。

So we should still look positively and optimistically about the technological development of power batteries，Under different scenarios，Every technical route has its place。When there is a breakthrough in ternary materials，Lithium Iron Phosphate；When lithium iron phosphate is regaining moisture，Lithium Iron Phosphate，This arbitrary dualism is obviously not feasible for the intricate lithium battery industry。

Many investors now habitually discuss 4680 batteries and high-nickel ternary materials together.，In fact, lithium iron phosphate and 4680 battery are also a good match，We will also pay attention to changes in this area。

Figure 8：Trend of power battery installed capacity，source：Company Announcement

Mapped to the cylindrical battery，Under the background that almost all mainstream car companies choose square or soft package solutions，The declining cylindrical battery hopes to usher in the second spring with the realization of the 4680 solution。now，Mainstream power battery companies at home and abroad are accelerating the pace of construction of 4680 cylindrical batteries，Seize the technical high ground ahead of time。

Picture 9：Some companies with 4680 cylindrical batteries，source：Zheshang Securities

[2] The former lithium battery leader is destined to be late
In the "Global Lithium Battery Arms Race：Ningde era and its overseas competitors" in the article，We interpret the current status of Panasonic batteries in detail。Although the old generations of lithium batteries in the past have nothing to say，But the failure of the business model caused it to be surpassed by one after another.。This time back with 4680 battery，Many people are optimistic that Panasonic will make a comeback，And even threaten Ningde’s status。

According to Panasonic，It is basically technically ready for mass production of Tesla 4680 batteries，Currently building a production line in Japan and conducting trial production，Prepare for mass production。Panasonic became the power battery boss in one fell swoop with Tesla's cylindrical battery order，This time Tesla is first to cooperate with Panasonic，Can Panasonic really come back with the 4680 battery?

From our perspectives，There is still a big question mark on this matter。

From 18650 to 2170，Panasonic has been working closely with Tesla，Its manufacturing experience and technical reserves are rich，Tesla naturally prioritizes cooperation with Panasonic。However, due to the extremely difficult laser welding of the tabs，Manufacturing experience is not enough，The result is that Panasonic's yield rate is still less than 70%.，According to industry chain research，The current Tesla laser welding research and development is breaking through with the company it has acquired，At present, there is still a big gap between the requirements of quality and mass production，This shows that Panasonic's first mover advantage has not formed a lead，The situation still cannot be overly optimistic。

on the other hand，Domestic power battery companies and South Korea’s LG、SK and others are accelerating the layout of 4680 cylindrical batteries，If Panasonic can't keep the 4680 battery's main supplier status in Tesla，Its global share may continue to decline。

What's worse for Panasonic is，There has been a lot of news that Tesla will build another Gigafactory in China，But not Panasonic’s home base in Japan，Not South Korea。Musk's intentions are already obvious，It is to put more power battery industry chain into the country，South Korea's LG, which can't make money on batteries, has taken the initiative to transfer its supply chain to China，The domestic power battery industry chain is expected to go to the next level。The most logical deduction is：At 4680，Panasonic planting trees，Picking fruits from the domestic industrial chain。

At that time, the country introduced Tesla to China，And give greater policy concessions，In fact, the autonomous controllability of China’s power battery technology has already been considered，Tesla was introduced for the strong and Hengqiang。So we don’t have to worry too much about the disruptive impact of the 4680 battery on domestic power battery companies.，Those singing empty voices should stop。

A new battlefield for domestic second-tier players
[1] The dawn of second-tier players is beginning
Back to the domestic market，The current pattern of power batteries in my country is the dominant one in the Ningde era，The remaining many second-tier companies have no other choice but to catch up，This 4680 cylindrical battery can be regarded as opening a new door for second-tier companies。On the square battery，It is indeed difficult for second-tier players to compete head-on with Ningde，But change to a cylindrical battery，Everyone is almost the same starting line，So who can win the cylindrical battery，Still inconclusive。
In the article "The Life and Death Competition of Power Batteries in the Shadow of the Ningde Era", we analyzed the second-line power battery companies to find another way.，Find different strategies。Now it’s rare to have a new battlefield like a cylindrical battery，Second-tier players are gearing up，Ready to do it。
The activist in this team is Yiwei Lithium Energy，115th of the month，Yiwei Lithium Energy announced that，The company's subsidiary Hubei Yiwei Power Co., Ltd. intends to sign the "Contract" with the Jingmen High-tech Industrial Development Zone Management Committee，Will invest in the construction of a 20GWh large cylindrical battery production line for passenger cars in Jingmen High-tech Zone，At this point，Yiwei Lithium Energy has a high probability of rushing to the 4680 battery。
More interesting is，As early as April 30th in the first half of the year，Yiwei Lithium Energy signed the "Electric Vehicle Strategic Cooperation Framework Agreement" with StoreDot。The latter announced on September 2 that it has developed a 4680 cylindrical battery that can be fully charged in 10 minutes.。It is worthy of being the "King of Tuyere" Yiwei Lithium Energy：Will there be momentum after 10 times in two years? 》The hot spot crazy demons summarized in the article，4680Type power battery has become its new focus。
Of course, Yiwei Lithium Energy already has technical reserves，Not just chasing hot spots。As early as June 2017，Yiwei Lithium Energy has built 4 new cylindrical battery production lines compatible with 18650 and 21700 batteries and with an annual output of 3.5GWh.。
In addition to Yiwei Lithium Energy，There are BAK batteries in China、Honeycomb Energy and others are working on 4680 batteries，The Ningde Era on the "Iron Throne"，And the menacing Yiwei Lithium Energy，The good show of power battery is being staged scene by scene。

【2】Competition of Extreme Manufacturing Capability
On Tesla Battery Day 2020，Musk highlights，In order to accelerate the development of electric vehicles，Tesla must produce more affordable electric cars。
Tesla from the battery design、Manufacturing process、Looking for opportunities to reduce costs in materials systems and other aspects，If these innovations become reality，Tesla's lithium battery range will increase by 54%，Costs will fall by 56%，Investment quota will drop by 69%。

Picture 10：Tesla will adopt 4680、Dry electrode、silicon、CTC and other methods to achieve cost reduction，source：Tesla

To complete the above innovation，Whether it’s the manufacturing process，Or efficient automated production，Are testing the extreme manufacturing capabilities。In the previous article，We have repeatedly mentioned that the innovation of power batteries mainly comes from material system innovation and structural innovation。Today when the material system is difficult to break through，Structural innovation has become the focus of competition among major power battery companies，The driving force behind structural innovation mainly comes from extreme manufacturing capabilities。
From the point of view of innovation and difficulty of mass production of 4680 battery，In the future, extreme manufacturing capacity will become one of the key factors for power battery companies to win。And the manufacturing capacity，It is the masterpiece of the domestic manufacturing industry。

Arsenic and Honey
For any changes to the power battery，Can't be taken lightly，The blade at the beginning of the year is still fresh in everyone’s memory。4680Large cylinder，Without mythical Tesla，We have to look at it in a correct way。
According to the technical information that has been disclosed so far，It is not difficult for us to come to a conclusion：Since the 4680 battery is mainly an innovation at the structural level，Does not involve changes in the underlying technology，Therefore, the influence of equipment and materials companies is relatively limited，Compared to 2170，4680The production process is basically the same，Use all the materials that should be used，This is not like a solid state battery，Put the electrolyte directly、The diaphragm is dry。
[1] Changes in the industrial chain
The biggest change mentioned above，Is the manufacturing process。Especially due to changes in the welding of the tabs，Which is the laser welding section，Higher requirements for welding，Will bring increment to laser welding related enterprises，Such as United Win Laser、Han's Laser、Yifei Laser (unlisted), etc.。
In addition, after the cylindrical battery is enlarged,，It puts forward higher requirements on the structural parts of the battery，The processing technology of the battery casing becomes more difficult，Need better equipment to crimp，This aspect is good for related equipment companies，Such as Ningbo Jingda、Slack。But is Kodali bad or good，Still need more information on the future industrial chain to confirm。
Of course, there may also be areas damaged by this，Such as battery thermal management。Low internal resistance with full pole ear structure、Less fever，No complicated cooling system is required，And the number of batteries in the battery pack using large cylindrical batteries is correspondingly reduced，So the thermal management of the battery pack will become simple，As the leader in thermal management，Early Sanhua Intelligent Control may be affected。
[2] Share of power battery companies
Except for supporting companies in the industry chain，What everyone is most concerned about is the change in the share of lithium battery players。The previous article also clearly stated，For Panasonic，4680May not be able to play the role of a life-saving straw。
And because 4680 emphasizes extreme manufacturing capabilities，We are more optimistic about domestic power battery companies，The construction of Tesla's second domestic factory has undoubtedly strengthened our confidence。With the deepening of Tesla's domestic production，The global share of domestic power battery companies is expected to increase further，For the new species 4680，Domestic power battery companies，Will open a new round of contest。
finally，What we want to say is，Rome was not built in a day，Especially for the huge and lengthy industrial chain of power batteries，A technology needs enough time for trial and error and verification from the proposal to trial production to real mass production。We will continue to track the latest developments of the 4680 battery，Present more valuable analysis。

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